Microsoft (MSFT) stock has entered a technical bear market, plummeting over 23% since the end of 2025 and roughly 31% from its all-time high set in late October 2025. As of early April 2026, the stock trades at approximately $371.71, marking its cheapest valuation on a price-to-earnings basis in the last decade.
The selloff is primarily driven by investor concerns over the company's massive capital expenditure on AI infrastructure, which reached $37.5 billion in the last quarter—a 66% year-over-year increase—with plans to spend over $100 billion this year. Fears persist about the return on this investment and potential disruption from competing AI tools like Claude, Grok, and ChatGPT, which are challenging Microsoft's Copilot adoption among paying customers.
Despite the downturn, Wall Street maintains a bullish stance. Goldman Sachs and Barclays reaffirmed $600 price targets with Buy ratings on April 6–7, implying over 60% upside from current levels. The broader street consensus, based on notes from the past three months, sets an average 12-month price target of $582.17, suggesting about 56% upside. Bank of America added Microsoft to its US 1 List on April 7, signaling strong institutional confidence.
Technical analysis, however, warns of further potential declines. Charts indicate the formation of a double-top pattern at $550 and a nearing death cross, with support levels identified at $341 and possibly $282 if the downtrend continues.
