XRP has experienced a rebound alongside the broader cryptocurrency market, but analyst CasiTrades is cautioning traders that this move may be deceptive. The cryptocurrency recently bounced above $1.35, but technical analysis suggests the setup is more dangerous than it appears. According to CasiTrades, this is not a true structural change but rather another move within a larger, still-valid bearish pattern.
The analyst's rationale centers on XRP pushing into resistance in a completed five-wave move, paired with bearish divergence on the RSI. The momentum indicator ticked higher even as the price failed to produce a stronger breakout. With the RSI pressing near the upper end of its recent range, it supports the idea of an impending bearish reversal. CasiTrades argues that the latest strength may signal exhaustion, noting that bullish candlesticks on hourly timeframes are precisely where traders get caught. Despite green candles, XRP has yet to make a new high above $1.40, meeting resistance instead.
CasiTrades lays out a specific bearish roadmap, warning that XRP could reverse into an extended crash eventually bringing it below $1. The first downside target is $1.13, marking a return to the price bottom from early February. A short relief bounce is projected from there before another move to the macro 0.786 support around $1.08. The final leg in the sequence is a projected break below $1 into the 0.854 support zone near $0.87, which would complete a larger corrective impulse wave. The analyst notes the bearish case would be invalidated if bulls reclaim and flip the 0.618 zone overhead, around $1.40, into support.
Separate price action analysis confirms XRP started a downside correction after failing to clear the $1.40 resistance. The price is now trading below $1.340 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average, with a bearish trend line forming resistance at $1.3550 on the hourly XRP/USD chart. Key support levels are identified at $1.3180 and $1.3110, with major resistance at $1.3450 and $1.3550. Technical indicators, including the MACD gaining pace in the bearish zone and the RSI below 50, add to the near-term bearish pressure.
