On-chain data reveals Bitcoin's long-term holders (LTHs) are currently sitting on significant unrealized losses, though the scale remains well below levels seen at the bottom of previous bear markets. According to analytics firm Glassnode, the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss for LTHs—investors holding coins for more than 155 days—has risen to 14% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization.
This marks the highest level of pain for this cohort since 2023, a consequence of Bitcoin's price decline since the last quarter of 2025 and the maturation of coins purchased near the market top into the LTH bracket. However, the chart shared by Glassnode shows that during the bottoms of the last two major bear markets, this indicator spiked to peaks of around 70%, significantly higher than current readings.
"While it’s uncertain whether the latest Bitcoin cycle will also have to see a similar level of pain among the LTHs before a bottom, the fact that the Relative Unrealized Loss still significantly lags behind could be noteworthy," the analysis notes. Concurrently, broader market metrics show increasing strain. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlighted that the share of Bitcoin supply in profit has collapsed to approximately 59%, a level last seen during the previous bear market and notably below the historical average of around 75%.
Nearly one out of every two Bitcoin is now held at a loss. Darkfost emphasized that the key level to watch is 50% supply in profit, a zone where bear markets have historically found a bottom. This environment, where profit margins are shrinking, is being interpreted by some as a potential accumulation phase rather than a time for mass selling.
Despite a recent rally that pushed Bitcoin's price back above $72,000, the underlying structure is viewed as highly bearish. One crypto analyst, using the BTC Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, argues that Bitcoin has not yet entered the "green bottoming zone" and predicts the bear market could remain active for another six months, suggesting another major price drop is inevitable.
