XRP price has extended its decline, breaking below key support levels and entering a consolidation phase as bearish signals mount. The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $1.33, having fallen nearly 16% from its March high, and remains trapped in a range between $1.25 and $1.40 for over two weeks.
Technically, XRP has broken below a rising channel with support at $1.3450 on the hourly chart and is now trading below the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. The price failed to hold above $1.350, declined below $1.3450 and $1.3420, and formed a low at $1.320. Immediate resistance is seen near $1.3420 and $1.3480, with the main hurdle at $1.3620. A close above $1.3620 could target $1.3750, while a break above $1.380 might push the price toward $1.3880 and $1.40.
On the downside, initial support lies at $1.320, followed by the critical $1.30 level. A break and close below $1.30 could trigger a deeper decline toward $1.2880, $1.2750, and potentially $1.250. Technical indicators are bearish, with the hourly MACD gaining pace in the bearish zone and the RSI below the 50 level.
The bearish pressure is exacerbated by significant whale selling and rising exchange inflows. Data shows whales have dumped an estimated $6 billion worth of XRP since October 2025, using every price bounce as an exit opportunity. Over the past two days alone, nearly $160 million worth of XRP has been moved to exchanges, increasing the risk of a deeper correction if these holdings are sold.
Market sentiment has been weighed down by geopolitical tensions and a broader risk-off mood. Furthermore, open interest in the XRP futures market has stalled around $2 to $3 billion, significantly lower than the $9 billion level recorded in October 2025, indicating diminished interest from derivatives traders.
The daily chart presents a concerning picture, with the 20-day SMA forming a bearish crossover with the 50-day SMA. XRP has also slipped below the last line of defense at $1.43 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level). The supertrend indicator has flipped red, and the RSI has dropped below the neutral threshold. This setup suggests a potential drop toward the February 5 low of $1.12, with a breach of that support possibly accelerating a slide to the $1.00 psychological level.
Despite the short-term bearish outlook, some analysts maintain a long-term bullish perspective. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that XRP is trading inside a giant 9-year ascending triangle on the monthly chart. He suggests that a successful breakout from this pattern could lead to a rebound of over 500% in the coming months.
