Bitcoin has crossed the $75,000 mark while gold approaches $4,800, but analyst Michaël van de Poppe argues the key metric to watch is the ratio between the two assets. The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio has just hit its lowest level ever, collapsing from a peak of 36 in September 2025 to just 12 by February 2026 – representing a 66% crash in just five months.
Van de Poppe identifies this as a two-standard deviation outlier, an extreme statistical reading that has only appeared four times in Bitcoin's history: the 2015 bear market bottom after Mt. Gox, the March 2020 COVID crash, the November 2022 bottom after FTX's collapse, and now. "The recent correction of BTC vs. Gold is the heaviest in the history of Bitcoin," he wrote in his analysis.
Historical data following these previous signals shows remarkable consistency. After the 2022 bottom, Bitcoin returned 44% in three months and 131% in twelve months. Following the 2020 COVID crash, it returned 90% in three months and 1,100% in twelve months. Across all four events, the averages are striking: 45% after three months, 120% after six months, and 370% after twelve months.
"This is the general moment every cycle that you'd want to get allocated into an asset," van de Poppe said. "Almost everyone is currently busy being distracted by all the events that are happening in the world. That's completely fine, but that's not how investing actually works."
With Bitcoin trading at $75,490 (up 10.64% on the week), van de Poppe sets a short-term target between $87,500 and $90,000 within three months. For Q3 or Q4 of 2026, he projects a realistic price range of $115,000 to $125,000, with 2027 expected to be a full bull market year for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and head of research Ryan Rasmussen argue in a separate analysis that bitcoin's recent strength is a direct result of geopolitical tensions, not a contradiction of risk-off conditions. Since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began on February 28, bitcoin has gained 12% while the S&P 500 slipped 1% and gold fell 10%.
"Chaos is a ladder," Hougan and Rasmussen wrote, framing bitcoin as "two bets in one" – both a challenge to gold as a store of value and a potential settlement currency in international trade. They note that Iran's reported willingness to accept bitcoin for oil transit-related payments signals growing openness to alternative financial systems.
Bitwise suggests that if bitcoin captures both store-of-value demand and a share of global transaction flows, $1 million could become a baseline price target rather than an upper bound. The firm views bitcoin's currency use case as an out-of-the-money call option that becomes more valuable as both adoption probability rises and global volatility increases – conditions they believe are now in play.
