The proprietary Bitcoin Risk Index, reported by analytics firm Swissblock, has hit zero, signaling a "full low-risk regime." This metric gauges the overall risk level in the Bitcoin market by measuring the relative balance between selling and buying pressure. Swissblock noted that this reading indicates reduced selling pressure, a completion of the bottoming phase, and "stabilization inside the low-risk regime." Historically, such zones mark where selling pressure is fully exhausted, allowing a bullish structure to begin rebuilding.
Supporting this view, CryptoQuant analyst 'Darkfost' observed that Bitcoin's Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric has "collapsed," signaling reduced activity from long-term holders (LTHs). While a shift in LTH behavior, this is interpreted as a sign of decreasing selling pressure, potentially with units being moved into long-term, secure custody.
However, the market faces a significant technical hurdle. CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno and on-chain analytics provider Alphractal highlighted that Bitcoin is approaching a major bear market resistance level—the traders' on-chain Realized Price, currently at $76,800. Other key on-chain cost resistances include the True Market Mean Price and the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price. Historically, these levels have acted as strong resistance during bear market phases.
Bitcoin tapped $75,800 on Tuesday, April 15, its highest level since March 17, but was rejected and fell back to around $74,000. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out a critical shift in market dynamics during this third test of the $75,000 level: the funding rate has turned negative. This indicates traders are over-leveraged on short positions while Bitcoin attacks resistance. Open interest has increased, with heavy short liquidations clustered between $76,000 and $78,000, setting the stage for a potential short squeeze if Bitcoin breaks higher.
On the supply side, Darkfost's data shows historically low volumes of Bitcoin being sent to exchanges by "Wholecoiners" (holders of at least 1 BTC). On Binance, the monthly average is around 6,000 BTC, akin to 2018 levels and far below the 2021 peak. Globally, such transfers are around 27,500 BTC, nearly three times lower than the 2018 peak. This structural reduction in exchange inflows points to decreased selling pressure and increasing illiquid supply.
Meanwhile, Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin recently, tapping $2,400, its highest level since early February. Glassnode reported that ETH has reclaimed the 1-to-3-month holder cost basis at $2,300, but the structure is "consistent with a bear market relief rally" similar to late 2022, rather than a structural trend reversal. Interestingly, Santiment noted that small retail traders are "dumping their Ethereum aggressively," which the firm interprets as a contrarian bullish signal, suggesting the rally could continue.
