The S&P 500 index closed at a historic all-time high of 7,022 on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, fully recovering from losses tied to recent US-Iran tensions in a matter of weeks. In stark contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $75,000, languishing roughly 40% below its own all-time high of over $126,000 set in October 2025.
On-chain analyst Darkfost highlighted this growing divergence, noting that the period of weak correlation or decoupling between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is the longest observed since 2020. He stated that while Bitcoin often follows major indices, it "still operates under its own internal dynamics at times, which can lead to this type of divergence." The S&P 500's recovery was historically swift, rising 10 out of the past 11 sessions and moving from a 100-day low to a 200-day closing high in just 11 days—a feat never before accomplished.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin faces a critical technical test. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that BTC is, for the third time in six months, testing the 100-day simple moving average as resistance. Previous tests in October 2025 and January 2026 resulted in price rejections of 30% and 39%, respectively. Martinez warned that a third rejection could signal a "major structural failure" and a potential drop toward the $60,000 yearly low, while a break above could open a path to $80,000-$84,000.
Amid this backdrop, Fundstrat's Tom Lee offered a bullish counterpoint. Appearing on CNBC's Closing Bell, Lee argued that crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are positioned to lead the next market rally, alongside Magnificent 7 tech stocks. He suggested that many investors remain sidelined due to geopolitical uncertainty, and their eventual return could provide further upside. This optimism was partly fueled by comments from US President Donald Trump, who indicated the US-Iran conflict may be nearing an end, easing pressure on risk assets.
