Bitcoin climbed to $74,935 in Asian trading hours on Thursday, marking a 0.7% gain over 24 hours and a 5.4% increase for the week. This movement occurred as U.S. equity markets closed at record highs, fueled by reports that the U.S. and Iran had reached an "in principle" agreement to extend negotiations past the April 7 ceasefire expiry date.
The S&P 500 finished up 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.4%, both setting new all-time highs and capping a two-week rally from late March lows. However, a stark divergence emerged between the spot price action in equities and crypto, and the sentiment priced into derivatives markets.
Crypto's derivatives desks are not pricing in the same conviction as the spot rally suggests. QCP Capital noted in a Telegram broadcast that Bitcoin's recent gains are "spot-led rather than part of a broader re-risking." Key metrics reveal underlying caution: funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual swaps remain negative, open interest has softened, and front-end implied volatility is muted. Furthermore, the 30-day 25-delta risk reversals show traders are still paying more for downside protection than betting on further upside.
Ether (ETH) led major altcoins in performance, gaining 8.1% on the week to reach $2,360. This extended an outperformance against Bitcoin that emerged earlier in the week. The ETH/BTC ratio climbed to roughly 0.0315, recovering from a February 2026 low near 0.028 and marking the first sustained stretch of Ether strength against Bitcoin in months. This outperformance occurred alongside strong on-chain fundamentals for Ethereum, with network transactions hitting a record 200.4 million in Q1 and stablecoin supply reaching an all-time high of $180 billion.
Other major tokens also saw gains: XRP rose 3.6% to $1.41, Dogecoin (DOGE) increased 4.8% to $0.098, and Solana (SOL) added 2.2% to $85.
The equity rally appears to be pricing in an end to the Persian Gulf conflict, but other asset classes tell a different story. Long-end Treasury yields barely moved, gold held near $4,800, and Brent crude oil ticked up to $95 as the U.S. pressed ahead with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed. "Stocks are basically expressing their view that the war in the Persian Gulf is all but over," noted Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.
QCP Capital emphasized that the core geopolitical risk remains unresolved, pointing to the significant gap between Iran's 60% enriched uranium and the U.S. demand for levels below 20%. The firm characterized the market move as "headline relief rather than resolution." Traders are advised to watch the next risk-off session for cues on whether the rotation into riskier assets like Ether is genuine, or if altcoins are simply riding Bitcoin's coattails with higher beta.
