TotalEnergies SE (TTE) saw its U.S.-listed stock rise approximately 3% in premarket trading on April 16 after flagging a strong first-quarter earnings outlook. The company expects higher oil and gas prices to add an estimated $2 billion to $2.5 billion to its working capital for Q1 2026. This boost comes despite the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has forced the company to curtail or halt operations in Qatar, Iraq, and offshore UAE, cutting around 100,000 barrels per day (roughly 15% of total output) from production.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) results are expected to be well above Q4 2025 levels, driven by 10% production growth and strong trading activity that benefited from market volatility. European refining margins during Q1 came in at $11.40 per ton, a staggering 192% increase from $3.90 a year earlier and above analyst expectations. TotalEnergies is scheduled to report full Q1 results on April 29.
Separately, on April 15, investment bank UBS upgraded BP p.l.c. (BP) from "neutral" to "buy," raising its 12-month price target by 8% to 700p per share. The upgrade cites new leadership under CEO Meg O'Neill, who took over on April 1, 2026, and significant cost-cutting potential. UBS analyst Joshua Stone estimates BP could achieve $3 billion to $6 billion in cost savings beyond the company's own $1.5 billion target by end-2027.
BP carries the highest leverage ratio in the sector at 47% net debt to capital, well above the sector average of 28%. UBS projects that under an $80 per barrel Brent scenario, BP's leverage could fall to 27% by 2028. The bank also highlighted BP's exploration success, including the Bumerangue discovery in Brazil—described as its largest find in 25 years with an estimated 8 billion barrels of liquids in place.
