Bitcoin is currently testing a critical technical resistance level that has triggered two significant price crashes in the past six months. According to analyst Ali Charts, BTC is testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as resistance for the third time since October 2025.
The previous two encounters with this level resulted in severe corrections. In October, a rejection near $116,000 led to a 30% drop to around $80,000. In January, a rejection from approximately $97,000 caused a 39% collapse, sending Bitcoin down to $59,800. Analysts warn that a third rejection now would confirm a "triple top" pattern, potentially sending the price back to retest the yearly low of $59,800.
Conversely, a confirmed daily close above the 100-day SMA could signal the end of the macro correction and open a path toward the $80,000 to $84,000 target zone. Other analysts, including Crypto Patel, emphasize that Bitcoin needs a high-time frame close above $76,000 to trust the move and target the $84,000-$96,000 range.
Market health indicators show a gradual recovery. The Bitcoin bull score index improved to 40 on April 15, its highest since late October 2025, though it remains in neutral territory. Analysts note that sustained spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and a weekly close above $72,800 are needed to confirm a bullish breakout and a return to a validated bull market.
