The cryptocurrency market has seen a notable green turn in recent days, fueled primarily by optimism surrounding geopolitical developments. News of ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with a separate 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon announced by President Trump, has injected positive sentiment into risk assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.
Bitcoin (BTC) touched a multi-month high near $76,000 this week before pulling back slightly to around $74,700. Analysts are closely watching the $76,000 level, with Crypto Patel stating it "is the level that decides everything." A firm weekly close above this zone is seen as critical to confirming a trend change and could open the path toward targets of $84,000–$96,000. More than 2 million BTC were accumulated in that price zone over the past six months, according to Glassnode data.
However, the outlook is not uniformly bullish. Veteran technical analyst Gareth Soloway, with 24 years of experience, shared a more nuanced view. While acknowledging Bitcoin's short-term upside potential, possibly to $80,000, he argued the longer-term macro-model appears bearish. He identified key support between $64,000 and $67,000, with a break lower potentially leading to a decline toward $50,000 or, in a worst-case scenario, $30,000.
A potential short squeeze is brewing in the market. Bitcoin perpetual funding rates have turned deeply negative, reaching levels last seen in 2023, indicating the market is heavily positioned with short bets. Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, noted that if Bitcoin continues to move higher, a lot of these short positions could get liquidated, accelerating the move. He suggested BTC could reach $125,000 in the next 30 to 60 days under such a scenario.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows showed a positive sign with $451 million in net inflows on Tuesday, though analysts emphasize that consistent daily inflows are needed to sustain a rally. The broader risk-on tone also benefited altcoins, with Ether (ETH) gaining 6% on the week, XRP up 6.4%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) adding 5.6%.
For Ethereum (ETH), Soloway noted the formation of a critical trend line above $2,000. As long as this level holds, he sees price targets at $2,400 and then $2,600-$2,700. A break below $2,000, however, could trigger a larger decline. Regarding XRP, the analyst identified a bullish flag pattern, suggesting a potential short-term rise to $1.5-$1.55 if it holds above $1.4, with further upside to $1.7-$1.8 possible. The key support level to watch is $1.12.
