DeepSeek AI has published a detailed analysis of how escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could impact the prices of XRP and Stellar (XLM). The analysis comes as the ceasefire between Iran and other parties expired on April 22 without an extension, heightening fears of conflict and sending traditional safe-haven assets like gold soaring near $4,800.
The core thesis suggests that while an initial market panic could cause a 5-10% drop in both XRP and XLM prices, their fundamental utility as cross-border payment networks could lead to a stronger recovery. In a world where traditional payment rails are disrupted by sanctions or supply chain issues, networks like Ripple and Stellar could see increased adoption.
For XRP, currently trading around $1.42, the analysis notes key support at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $1.3688. A breakdown in sentiment could push the price toward $1.30-$1.35. However, a potential catalyst lies in U.S. regulatory clarity, specifically the CLARITY Act, which could classify XRP as a commodity and unlock institutional investment. Whale accumulation, including a reported 130 million XRP purchase in 24 hours, and bullish technical divergences on the 4-hour chart are cited as supportive factors. The long-term roadmap, including a native lending protocol and quantum-resistant upgrades by 2028, adds to the fundamental case.
For XLM, trading near $0.1701, similar dynamics are at play, with its 100-period SMA at $0.1601 acting as crucial support. The upcoming mainnet vote for the "Protocol 26" (Yardstick) upgrade on May 6 is highlighted as a major technical catalyst. Stellar's existing partnerships with major financial entities like Visa, MoneyGram, and Franklin Templeton position it to potentially benefit from any disruption in traditional finance.
Concurrently, a separate market report from Arab Chain points to a divergence in XRP's order flow. Despite the price holding above $1.40, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) on Binance remains negative at approximately -7.18 million, indicating sell orders are still outpacing buys in aggregate volume. This suggests the recent price stability may be due to reduced selling pressure rather than strong new demand. However, a positive signal is the improving 30-day correlation between XRP's price and its order flow, now at approximately 0.61, indicating the market may be moving toward a more coherent and less volatile phase.
