Avalanche's native token AVAX has experienced a 3% decline in the last 24 hours, making it one of the worst performers among the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market cap. Trading below $9.30 on Thursday, the token faces rejection at a key resistance zone.
The broader market turned bearish after Iran opened fire on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, with the United States maintaining a blockade. These geopolitical tensions have dampened short-term risk sentiment, affecting risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and AVAX.
Institutional demand for AVAX remains muted, with spot AVAX Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) showing no activity this week following a $5.26 million inflow last week. The lack of institutional interest is exacerbated by growing uncertainty in the Middle East.
Derivatives metrics paint a bearish picture. The long-to-short ratio stands at 0.84, its lowest in over a month, indicating bearish sentiment as traders bet on price declines. Additionally, the OI-Weighted Funding Rate has flipped negative at -0.0054%, signaling that shorts are paying longs and projecting a bearish outlook.
From a technical perspective, AVAX is below all key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 50-day EMA at $9.41, 100-day EMA at $10.36, and 200-day EMA at $13.15 providing strong resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just above neutral 50, while the MACD indicator slips back into negative territory.
In positive news, FractiFi has partnered with Avalanche to enable tokenized deposits and institutional cash management onchain, removing intermediaries and allowing bank-style settlement directly on Avalanche infrastructure. This partnership strengthens Avalanche's position in institutional settlement systems, alongside major financial players like BlackRock, Balcony Tech, and NHN KCP.
Additionally, the CME Group AVAX futures launch is expected on May 4, 2026, pending approval, bringing regulated derivatives access. The AVAT Nasdaq listing planned for 2026 introduces equity-based exposure backed by over $1 billion in AVAX holdings.
However, an upcoming token unlock on April 25 will release approximately $15.6 million worth of AVAX (0.39% of circulating supply), potentially adding short-term pressure if recipients sell into weak liquidity or negative sentiment.
The current support level is at $8.39, where buyers previously emerged. A sustainable dip below this level would likely expose the prior cycle low region and reinforce the broader bearish structure.
