Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, has provided an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin despite acknowledging a potential bear flag formation. In a recent market update, Timmer noted that Bitcoin has shown significant resilience, bouncing from a local low of $60,033 to establish a new recovery high of $78,344. He stated that while the upward movement from the $60,033 floor could technically be classified as a “bear flag” pattern—which often precedes further downside—he ultimately leans toward a much more bullish scenario.
“Bitcoin continues to build a large base here,” Timmer said, viewing this extended consolidation phase as necessary preparation for the “next major up wave.” He described the massive drawdown from $126,000 to the $60,000 level as a “mild winter,” during which Bitcoin consistently held onto the $65,000 to $70,000 range to form a solid foundation.
One of Timmer’s most notable observations involves the direct capital rotation between Bitcoin and gold. He noted a distinct trend in Exchange Traded Product (ETP) flows. When Bitcoin reached its macro peak last October, capital actively exited Bitcoin ETPs and flooded into gold. However, that dynamic has recently flipped: gold lost its momentum, and Bitcoin established a solid support base. As a result, capital flows have reversed back into digital assets. “To me this is a good way to think about why gold has started acting like Bitcoin and bitcoin has started acting like gold,” Timmer explained.
On the Ethereum front, crypto analyst Ali Martinez argued that Ethereum is testing a critical level that historically separates bear markets from macro bull periods. According to Martinez, Ethereum is currently trading around the “realized price” of approximately $2,340—the average cost for all on-chain investors. He noted that in past cycles, this level has generated strong selling pressure during recovery phases, with investors generally preferring to exit at the break-even point. However, when this critical threshold is transformed into a support level, Ethereum is observed to enter strong and highly confident uptrend phases.
