Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, stated on the Thinking Crypto podcast from the Solana Policy Summit that Bitcoin may not see a meaningful recovery until October or November of 2026. He argued that the current drawdown, which has seen Bitcoin fall roughly 38% from its October 2025 peak of $125,761 to around $77,844, fits the asset's historic four-year cycle despite a more favorable regulatory backdrop in Washington.
Scaramucci said investors had expected a stronger policy-driven rally after the change in US administration, but that whales and long-time holders have continued to sell into ETF-driven demand. "I'm old school. I've been in the category that this is a cyclical bear market traditional to the four-year cycle of Bitcoin," Scaramucci said. "You've just crossed the halfway mark of the halving and so you're on your way to the back half of this thing. You typically don't get any type of real recovery until the first quarter of next year."
He added that Bitcoin's timeline may have been slightly accelerated by macro factors, including President Donald Trump's tariff-related messaging and geopolitical conflict. Still, he noted Bitcoin has remained "fairly sticky" during the war period. "You probably won't see a recovery in Bitcoin until maybe the first month of the last quarter," he said, pointing to "October possibly November" as a more realistic window.
Why Bitcoin ETF Demand Has Not Been Enough
According to Scaramucci, the answer lies partly in supply. ETF activity has brought new buyers into Bitcoin, including older investors using traditional brokerage channels, but that demand has met heavy distribution from whales and early holders. "You're still seeing a lot of Bitcoin buying. A lot of boomers are buying Bitcoin, but it's just not enough," he said. "You got whales that are selling into the — the OGs in this industry believe in the four-year cycle. And so what they do is they fulfill the prophecy of the four-year cycle by acting on the four-year cycle and selling." He said whales were "pumping lots of coins into the supply at around $100,000," contributing to Bitcoin falling into the high $60,000s.
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, in an interview with Crypto Prime, supported the view that selling pressure came from longer-tenured crypto holders rather than ETF buyers. During the 38% drawdown, US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.32 billion in March, reversing a four-month outflow streak, and added another $2.42 billion in net inflows between April 6 and April 22. The strongest days were April 17, with $663.9 million in inflows, and April 22, with $335.8 million. Gemini's coin-level data show that ETF-held Bitcoin fell only from 1.38 million BTC at the October 2025 high to 1.28 million at the trough, then recovered quickly to 1.31 million. Balchunas noted that during a 20% drawdown, ETFs logged outflows of under $1 billion, roughly 99.5% of their assets.
Scaramucci also tied Bitcoin's next phase of institutional adoption to US market-structure legislation, especially the Clarity Act. "If you don't get the Clarity Act legislation passed, you're not going to get the banks to really open up," he said. He cited experimental custody programs at Bank of New York and SoFi, arguing that real adoption requires major money-center banks to offer custody, yield, and borrowing against Bitcoin on more competitive terms. Until then, investors will not see "real full-throated adoption."
On the Bitcoin reserve question, Scaramucci said a US strategic Bitcoin reserve should only be considered if the issue can move beyond partisan framing. "It's very hard to hold Bitcoin in a strategic reserve if it's a partisan issue," he said. He favored retaining government-held Bitcoin from legal actions rather than selling, but would not aggressively push the issue before broader consensus forms.
Market data shows Bitcoin traded at $77,844 at the time of reporting, while Citi's 12-month bull scenario targets $165,000 anchored in sustained institutional demand, and its adverse scenario puts Bitcoin at $58,000 tied to stalled US regulatory progress.
