Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Predicted Near $40,000 by Analysts

3 hour ago 2 sources negative

Key takeaways:

  • Both $38K and $40K targets suggest institutional sentiment has shifted from bullish accumulation.
  • May's monthly close will be critical to confirm if BTC's $60K floor breaks structurally.
  • Traders should watch for a potential bear trap rally toward $85K before wave Y downside.

Two prominent crypto analysts have issued bearish Bitcoin price forecasts, predicting a potential bottom far below the $60,000 level many market participants consider a floor. Their analyses suggest Bitcoin may still have significant downside ahead before the current bear market concludes.

Analyst Killa, known for his accurate previous call of Bitcoin's peak near $121,362 (very close to the actual high of $126,100), shared a bottom prediction around $38,800. Allowing a 5% margin of error, he sees a possible bottom range of $40,740 to $42,680. Killa described the $60,000 level as a "quite optimistic bottom scenario." He notes that from a technical perspective, Bitcoin is testing a significant structural zone where the wick peak and opening level from February converge. If the price falls below $60,000 in the coming months, Killa warns this zone should not be reclaimed on a monthly basis. He also cautioned that volatility could increase due to the upcoming monthly close, and a strong May start could form a "pivot top," after which the downtrend may continue.

Meanwhile, analyst Crypto Bullet presented a "Double ZigZag (WXY)" wave structure forecast on X. He notes Bitcoin has spent more time consolidating between $62,000 and $78,000 than in the $84,000 to $97,000 range from November 2025 to January 2026, indicating a broader bearish structure. Crypto Bullet expects BTC to make a final push higher toward $85,000 (wave X), completing a corrective move begun after the October 2025 peak above $126,000 and the February 2026 drop to $60,000. After that, he forecasts a sharp reversal leading to wave Y, with a bottom target of $40,000 expected between September and October 2026. This would represent a 50% decline from the $80,000 level, potentially trapping bullish traders. Analyst Tony Severino supports this outlook as the most likely scenario.

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