As the final week of April begins, Bitcoin ($BTC) is trading around $78,132, pressing against the upper boundary of a prolonged descending channel. This week is set to be decisive for the summer trend as technical patterns collide with key Federal Reserve decisions.
Popular analyst Aksel Kibar, known for his conservative approach and whose technical analyses have earned recognition from figures such as Peter Brandt, maintains cautious optimism. In his view, Bitcoin's price is at a critical point, but there exists a strong magnet at $86,852 — the 365-day moving average, which serves as the primary target of the current impulse move.
Kibar emphasizes he will turn outright bullish only after a confident breakout above the upper boundary of the channel. According to him, a move beyond the positive extreme typically triggers a chain reaction and rapid growth. The $76,500 and $72,000 levels remain key support zones, and holding them is necessary for the bullish scenario to play out.
The calendar of events adds further intrigue. On Wednesday, April 29, the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision, with an expected range of 3.50-3.75%. This meeting is being called historic, as it may be the last for Jerome Powell as head of the institution. The market is speculating whether he will leave as a hawk, maintain high rates, or soften his rhetoric ahead of his departure on May 15.
Immediately after, on Thursday, April 30, U.S. GDP data will be released. These figures will answer the main question of the year: has the economy managed to avoid stagflation, or will pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin, intensify?
