United Airlines (UAL) and American Airlines (AAL) have seen merger talks collapse, with United CEO Scott Kirby confirming that American rejected his approach. Kirby stated he believed a combination could better compete with foreign carriers, but American CEO Robert Isom called the idea “anticompetitive” during a post-earnings call. President Trump also voiced opposition on CNBC's Squawk Box, saying, “I don’t like having them merge.”
With American and the White House opposed, Kirby acknowledged the deal is dead for now. Both airlines face weaker earnings outlooks: United cut its full-year profit guidance to $7–$11 per share, citing higher jet fuel prices linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict. American also reduced its full-year guidance, projecting a loss of up to 40 cents per share. UAL stock is down 17% year-to-date, while AAL has fallen over 20%.
Despite the merger collapse, several analysts raised price targets on AAL after its Q1 earnings report, which showed a loss of $0.40 per share—better than the expected $0.47 loss—and revenue of $13.91 billion, exceeding forecasts. Jefferies raised its target to $13, BMO Capital to $13.50, and Evercore held at $14.00. The company also launched a $1.14 billion bond sale backed by 32 aircraft.
Rising fuel costs remain a significant pressure point. American warned it could end 2026 at a loss after absorbing about $4 billion in additional fuel expenses. The airline shifted $300 million of capital expenditures out of 2026 to gain financial flexibility.
