Major financial institutions are dramatically raising their oil price forecasts as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global energy markets. Citigroup and Goldman Sachs have both released updated outlooks, with Citi warning that Brent crude could reach $150 per barrel if the disruption persists.
Brent crude was trading near $108.50 a barrel on Monday, up about 3% on the day and on track for a sixth straight daily gain. The rally follows the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has cut Persian Gulf crude transits to near zero.
Citi Raises Forecast, Warns of $150 Oil
Citigroup has raised its near-term Brent crude target to $120 per barrel, up from $95, and now targets Brent at $120 per barrel over the next zero to three months. The bank raised its average quarterly forecasts to $110, $95, and $80 for the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2026, compared to prior estimates of $95, $80, and $75.
Citi gives its base case a 50% probability, which assumes the Strait begins to reopen by the end of May, one month later than the bank previously expected. Analysts at Citi said the Iranian regime has both financial and strategic reasons to keep the Strait effectively closed for now, which would tighten global oil supply, speed up inventory drawdowns, and push prices higher.
Citi estimates that roughly 500 million barrels of cumulative supply have been lost since the conflict began. If the Strait stays closed through May, the bank projects total losses could reach 1.3 billion barrels.
Citi's bull case, carrying a 30% probability, sees Brent reaching $150 per barrel if disruptions last through the end of June. A super-bull scenario involving infrastructure destruction could push prices to $160–$180 per barrel on a sustained basis. Global inventories are on track to reach their lowest levels in over a decade by the end of July under Citi's base case scenario.
Goldman Sachs Also Raises Outlook
Goldman Sachs also raised its Brent crude forecast, now seeing Brent averaging $90 a barrel in Q4 2026, up from a previous forecast of $80. Goldman says that figure is now nearly $30 higher than it was before what analysts are calling the 'Hormuz shock.'
Goldman estimates that 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf crude production losses are driving global inventories to draw down at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April. The bank projects a deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day this quarter and now sees Brent at $100 this quarter and $93 in Q3.
Goldman also named five Buy-rated oil stocks in its research: Halliburton, Cenovus, ConocoPhillips, Valero, and Diamondback Energy, saying the sector is entering a new capital spending cycle. The bank raised its WTI forecast to $83 per barrel for Q4 2026.
Morgan Stanley Holds Steady
Morgan Stanley kept its forecasts unchanged, expecting Brent to average $110 this quarter, $100 in Q3, and $90 in Q4. The bank estimates Gulf oil exports have slumped by 14.2 million barrels per day due to the closure, with global stockpiles dropping by an estimated 4.8 million barrels per day.
