Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading in a compressed range, with analysts from both Coinpedia and Glassnode highlighting critical resistance and support zones that will determine the next major move. The price has been struggling to maintain bullish momentum after rejections from the $79,000 level, which has acted as strong resistance multiple times.
Current Price Action: After being rejected from $79,000, Bitcoin dropped to $75,600 before bouncing back to approximately $77,700. However, the recovery has been accompanied by uneven volume, raising concerns about its sustainability. The hourly chart shows a V-shaped recovery attempt, but selling pressure near $78,500 is expected to cap gains.
Glassnode's Analysis: According to the cryptocurrency analytics firm, Bitcoin was strongly rejected from the "Real Market Average" and short-term investor cost floor levels around $78,000–$79,000. The data reveals that short-term investors are viewing the rally as a selling opportunity, with hourly profit-taking reaching up to $4 billion. This distribution process has made it difficult for buyers to sustain upward momentum.
Key Levels to Watch: The critical resistance zone is $79,300–$79,600, while immediate resistance sits at $78,300–$78,500. On the downside, immediate support is at $76,900, with a lower support zone between $75,800–$76,200. Glassnode also highlights a strong accumulation zone between $65,000 and $70,000, with the $68,000 level acting as a crucial support band.
Market Dynamics: Despite selling pressure, there are signs that spot market selling is easing. The volume delta is approaching neutral levels and occasionally turning positive, indicating buyers are beginning to re-enter. However, Glassnode emphasizes that for a sustained uptrend, demand needs to increase more strongly. On the institutional side, there is cautious recovery with renewed growth in ETF asset sizes, but strong confidence has yet to be established.
Derivatives Market: A record-high net short positioning in futures indicates a tendency among investors to hedge against risk. This excessive short positioning carries the risk of a sharp "short squeeze" if positive news emerges. Volatility metrics show consolidation, with realized and implied volatility levels close to each other, suggesting no strong directional expectation.
Both analyses conclude that Bitcoin remains stuck below critical resistance levels, with the next major move dependent on whether real capital inflows strengthen or not. A break above $78,500 could open the path toward $80,000, while losing $76,900 could expose the $75,800–$76,200 support zone.
