A new report from blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs has revealed an extreme concentration of wealth on the prediction market platform Polymarket. The data shows that fewer than 1% of winning wallets captured roughly half of all profits across key political markets between December 2025 and February 2026.
Specifically, the report found that just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets (those using limit orders) accounted for 50% of all gains. Among taker wallets (those using market orders), the concentration was even starker, with only 0.26% of participants capturing nearly the same share of profits. In dollar terms, out of approximately $16 million in total profits, roughly $8 million accrued to each of these tiny cohorts.
The findings build on earlier academic research from London Business School and Yale, which found that about 3% of Polymarket traders drive most price discovery. The Solidus data sharpens this picture, suggesting that an even smaller group is not just moving the markets, but consistently winning them.
Solidus Labs argues that the scale of the imbalance points to a structural divide between a small group of traders operating with significant advantages—such as deep capital, sophisticated infrastructure, and advanced execution strategies—and the broader base of participants. “The participants capturing a disproportionate share of profits are operating in a different league entirely,” the report stated.
The analysis also flagged signs of potential wash trading, with roughly 15% of volume in some markets showing patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. Because outcome tokens in a binary prediction market sum to roughly $1.00, a trader could buy YES on both sides of a bet, register volume on each leg, and finish economically delta-neutral—a trade with no equivalent in traditional finance. Some of this activity may be incentive farming related to Polymarket’s anticipated $POLY airdrop.
It is important to note that Solidus Labs is not a neutral observer; the firm sells the HALO surveillance platform used to generate the report’s data. The company recently signed a deal to deploy HALO across more than 4,000 markets on Kalshi, Polymarket’s largest U.S.-regulated competitor. While the underlying on-chain data is verifiable, the report’s framing serves as a pitch for prediction market surveillance infrastructure.
The report raises significant questions for retail traders, regulators, and the long-term sustainability of prediction markets. It challenges the notion of these platforms as democratic tools, suggesting that success requires significant resources and advanced technology. Regulators could use this data to push for greater transparency and consumer protection as the sector grows.
