Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $2,323, up 1.48% on April 29, as it presses against the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2,349 inside a rising wedge pattern. According to Polymarket, traders give 62% odds that ETH will close above $2,350 today and 15% odds for $2,500 by May 3, with $2,200 viewed as the most likely downside level at 26%. The derivatives market shows activity, with shorts absorbing $37.96 million in liquidations over 24 hours versus $23.58 million for longs, while options volume surged 35% to $979.03 million.
Analysts are divided on Ethereum's next move. Michaël van de Poppe asserts that ETH's structure remains intact and a breakout from local resistance near $2,400 is "a matter of when, not if." He suggests the altcoin could follow Bitcoin upward, opening a path to retest resistance around $2,700. Ali Martinez highlights that reclaiming the Realized Price level at $2,335 as support is a prerequisite for a sustained rally, potentially targeting the 2.4 MVRV pricing band at $5,600 for a 140% gain.
However, bearish signals also emerge. Crypto Batman notes that ETH broke down from a two-week pennant pattern after losing the $2,320 support, warning that failing to reclaim the bullish trendline could lead to lower levels. Ted Pillows flags weakness in the current rally and warns that failing to reclaim $2,400 risks turning the pump into exit liquidity, potentially triggering a sharp pullback. He also points out that Ethereum has retraced after each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting since October 2025, with declines of 17% to 42% in the following days. After the latest FOMC meeting, ETH fell to a two-week low of $2,220 before recovering slightly. If history repeats, ETH could lose the $2,200 support and target the $2,000 psychological barrier for the first time in a month.
Ethereum currently trades in a range between $2,250 and $2,400, having reached a three-month high of $2,465 on April 17. The rising wedge pattern on the daily chart is tightening, suggesting a potential resolution in either direction.
