Gold continues to display resilience, maintaining upward momentum above the $2,565 support area, while WTI crude oil faces renewed weakness, potentially extending losses below $96.50. The contrasting trends reflect ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Gold Technical Outlook
On the hourly timeframe, gold found solid support near $4,500 and began a steady recovery, moving above $4,550. The price climbed past both the 50-hour moving average and the $4,600 level, signaling strengthening bullish sentiment. Buyers pushed the market beyond the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $4,740 to $4,510, while a descending resistance line near $4,620 was breached. The next obstacle lies around $4,650, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A decisive move above $4,700 could open the path towards $4,740, with further upside potentially targeting $4,850. On the downside, immediate support is seen near $4,600, followed by a stronger base around $4,565. A break below this level could trigger a decline towards $4,510, with deeper losses exposing $4,420.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Outlook
WTI crude oil failed to sustain gains above $108 and reversed lower, slipping beneath $105 and extending losses below $100. The price dropped under the 50-hour moving average, reflecting increasing bearish pressure. Support has emerged near $96.00, where the market is currently stabilizing after forming a low at $96.04. Any recovery attempt may face resistance near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from $107.62 to $96.04. A key barrier stands near $100.45, where a bearish trend line is forming. A break above this level could allow a move towards $103.20 (61.8% Fibonacci level), with further upside targeting $105.65 and potentially $108. If selling pressure persists, the price may retest $96.00, with the next major support located around $92.00. A breakdown below this level could accelerate declines towards $90.00, and possibly as low as $86.50.
Weekly Data and Macro Drivers
Key economic events this week include the RBA interest rate decision (expected to raise rates from 4.10% to 4.35%), US Services PMI, Canada unemployment rate, and the US jobs report. The non-farm payrolls are expected to increase to 178,000 from 73,000, which could strengthen the dollar. Gold fell for a second straight week as traders weighed progress toward a US-Iran deal and shipping plans in the Strait of Hormuz. Prices came under pressure after Donald Trump signaled the US would guide some vessels through the region, easing immediate risk concerns. Higher energy prices fueling inflation push central banks toward a more hawkish stance, reducing expectations for rate cuts—an overall negative setup for gold. A stronger dollar adds further pressure.
Oil Markets and Geopolitical Risks
Oil prices steadied after early swings as traders questioned the effectiveness of a US plan to guide neutral ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The initiative, led by Donald Trump, aims to unblock vessels stranded by the conflict with Iran, but a reported tanker strike in the region underscored the fragile situation. Iran has warned that any US interference could breach ceasefire terms. OPEC+ signaled business as usual with a modest planned output increase, doing little to offset current risks. The major technical support area for oil is around $94, consisting of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
