Bitcoin continues to show robust signs of a potential breakout, currently trading around $81,300 after a 5.5% weekly gain. Data from Santiment reveals that in May alone, wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC (whales and sharks) have accumulated an additional 16,622 BTC, while the smallest retail wallets (<0.01 BTC) shed 28 BTC. This classic divergence—smart money buying as retail sells—has historically preceded major bull runs.
Technical indicators support the bullish narrative. The weekly MACD histogram expanded to +3,000 by May 3, the highest in recent records, confirming strong upward momentum. Key levels to watch include immediate support at $80,000 and resistance at the 200‑day moving average near $84,000. A weekly close above that could open a path toward $89,000, with $94,000 and even $100,000 in sight if buying pressure intensifies.
Adding to the institutional puzzle, MicroStrategy (now Strategy) posted a $12.54 billion net loss under new FASB accounting rules but indicated a shift from its “never sell” stance. The company holds 818,334 BTC worth roughly $66.4 billion and may sell up to 0.18% monthly to fund dividends. However, this selling is expected to be offset—or even turned positive—by continual capital raises that are used to purchase more Bitcoin, effectively growing BTC per share.
A broader macro dynamic is also at play. The Kobeissi Letter notes that offshore dollar deposits have surged 220% this century to a record $14.5 trillion, reinforcing global USD demand and tightening liquidity. While this has pressured gold (XAU/USD slipped below $4,600 as Treasury yields rose), Bitcoin is benefiting from fresh ETF inflows—including $630 million on May 1—and a risk‑on shift among institutional investors. ChatGPT‑based projections suggest that if Bitcoin holds the $79,000–$76,000 support zone, the most likely scenario is a grind toward $89,000, with a bullish breakout targeting $94,000–$100,000.
