A draft agreement between the United States and Iran is reportedly taking shape, outlining a halt to Iran’s uranium enrichment in exchange for significant sanctions relief, according to sources cited by Axios. The proposed 14-point memorandum of understanding would not only end the current hostilities but also set a framework for detailed nuclear negotiations, with both sides lifting restrictions on transit through the strategic Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil trade.
Under the terms, Iran would suspend enrichment activities, while Washington would lift some sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian assets. The deal would trigger a 30-day period of intensive talks, during which shipping restrictions and the US naval blockade would be phased out. White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are said to be mediating the talks, with Iran expected to respond within 48 hours.
Market implications for Bitcoin and risk assets are significant. Previous phases of this conflict saw Bitcoin plunge from $66,000 to $63,000 as war escalated, then rally back toward $78,000–$79,000 on ceasefire signals. Analysts describe a “de-risking, then re-risking” pattern: initial shock forces capital into safe havens, but durable de-escalation encourages rotation back into higher-beta assets like Bitcoin. A final deal would likely ease oil prices, soften inflation fears, and renew rate-cut expectations, potentially driving Bitcoin higher as geopolitical tail-risks fade.
