Bitcoin’s recent recovery above $80,000 for the first time since January 2026 has not convinced all market analysts that the worst is over. In fact, multiple technical outlooks suggest the move is forming a bear flag that could send BTC back toward the mid-$50,000 range.
Crypto analyst Leshka shared a daily chart view on X, identifying an ascending channel since the February low that has produced higher highs and higher lows. While this pattern can appear constructive, Leshka interprets it as a bear flag—a structure that typically resolves with a breakdown below the channel. The upper boundary of this flag coincides with the 200-day moving average near $82,000, a level Bitcoin has not closed above in seven months. “Bitcoin is likely to close May in the red,” Leshka stated, projecting a rejection at the confluence of resistance and the 200 MA, followed by a decline to around $56,000–$58,000 by June.
Fellow analyst CryptoCon echoed a similar view, noting that the current bear flag has been in play for 86 days, out of a maximum observed duration of 100 days since November 2021. He highlighted that seven bear flags have formed during this period and that a second retest of the flag’s top—now underway—typically precedes a downside break. CryptoCon expects the bear cycle to fully play out, with a bottom unlikely before year-end.
Adding to the bearish chorus, analyst Doctor Profit, who correctly called Bitcoin’s top last year, described BTC as entering the “final stage of the bull trap.” He plans to maintain a long position until $83,000–$85,000 before switching to shorts, anticipating a forceful downtrend to new lows, possibly around $50,000 later in 2026.
Bitcoin is currently up about 7.11% for May, historically a strong month with an average gain of 18.7%. However, red Mays have appeared during similar market phases—including declines of 35.4% in 2021, 15.9% in 2022, and 7.10% in 2023. The present resistance test around $82,000 will be critical in determining whether this May adds to the bearish tally or defies the analysts’ expectations.
