Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, have reiterated an outperform rating and a $330 price target on Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN), representing roughly 71% upside from current levels. The investment bank’s bullish call comes despite the exchange’s weaker-than-expected first-quarter results, where revenue missed estimates by 5% and a net loss of $394.1 million was recorded due to unrealized crypto investment losses.
The firm stressed that Coinbase’s transformation into a multi-product financial platform is gaining traction. Derivatives trading, prediction markets, and payment services are each scaling rapidly, reducing reliance on volatile spot volumes. The prediction market business alone surpassed an annualized revenue run rate of $100 million by March, while retail and institutional derivatives are annualizing above $200 million and $250 million, respectively – buoyed by the Deribit acquisition and an all-time high in overall crypto trading market share.
Bernstein also highlighted the vertical integration around USDC, the Base Layer 2 network, and agentic commerce infrastructure. Base stablecoin transaction volume grew tenfold year-over-year, with over 90% of agentic stablecoin volume occurring on that chain. Analysts view forthcoming regulatory clarity on the Clarity Act and a potential formal announcement around a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as additional catalysts that markets may be underestimating.
While spot trading volume fell 25% to $202 billion and retail monthly transacting users declined 10%, the diversifying revenue streams suggest a more stable earnings base. Bernstein’s target implies that Coinbase’s non-spot businesses are significantly undervalued, supporting a long-term thesis that extends beyond immediate market cycles.
