The dollar traded mostly lower on Friday as the previous day's optimism over US-Iran negotiations faded, leaving markets to refocus on the impending US nonfarm payrolls report. Weekend indirect talks in Oman between American and Iranian officials concluded without a formal breakthrough, with key sticking points—particularly uranium enrichment limits and the timing of sanctions relief—remaining unresolved. The lack of a deal kept geopolitical risk premiums intact, supporting crude oil near $88 per barrel and limiting dollar gains, while equities in Asia and Europe saw modest advances.
US Employment Data Takes Center Stage
With the geopolitical catalyst stalling, trader attention has swung squarely to Friday’s NFP print. Consensus forecasts point to job gains of around 200,000 for April, following a surprisingly strong 178,000 in March that tripled expectations. However, several months of downward revisions have clouded the trend, and unemployment at 4.3% remains only marginally higher than 2025’s average. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates at 3.5–3.75% through year-end, with CME FedWatch showing a 70% chance of no hike until early 2027. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could rekindle bets on earlier easing, weakening the dollar, while a strong number would reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative.
Bitcoin’s Technical Picture
Bitcoin held firm around $81,000 on Thursday, bolstered by strong ETF inflows—more than $2.4 billion net into spot Bitcoin ETFs in April. The possibility of tighter monetary policy later in 2026 has been largely priced in, allowing the cryptocurrency to build on gains from late March. Key resistance looms at $82,000, a round number coinciding with the 38.2% monthly Fibonacci retracement and the 200-day simple moving average. A breakout above that could push prices toward $87,000, a familiar area from December 2025. On the downside, the 20- and 50-day SMAs around $75,000 provide a likely value zone if the NFP triggers a retracement.
Broader Forex and Commodity View
EUR/USD oscillated near the 1.0700 handle, with a resilient Eurozone services sector providing support but the dollar’s rate advantage capping upside. USD/JPY hovered around 155.00, sensitive to any post-NFP yield moves, while cable traded near 1.2500. Gold and the Swiss franc saw modest safe-haven inflows amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty. As markets await Friday’s jobs data, the dollar’s next move—and Bitcoin’s direction—will hinge on the actual report and any surprise deviation from forecasts.
