XRP price has come under renewed selling pressure, sliding below the $1.40 level and extending its correction alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum. After failing to hold above $1.4120, XRP declined below the $1.40 support zone to trade near $1.38, now consolidating losses below the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
On the hourly chart, a bearish trend line has formed with resistance at $1.3920. A recovery attempt will first need to clear this level, followed by a more significant barrier at $1.40. A decisive push above $1.4095 could target $1.4180 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent sell-off from $1.4570 to $1.3800. Further upside rests at $1.4250 and $1.45. Conversely, failure to overcome $1.40 could intensify the sell-off, with immediate support at $1.380 and major support at $1.3680. A close below that zone may open the door to $1.35 or even $1.3320.
While the short-term technical picture appears fragile, on-chain data is painting a vastly different, more bullish narrative. CryptoQuant figures reveal that whale inflows of XRP to Binance have plunged to 736 million tokens, a four-year low and a steep decline from 2.6 billion XRP in early March. Historically, such a dramatic drop in large-holder exchange deposits signals reduced selling intent and has often preceded supply squeezes that propelled prices higher.
Moreover, institutional appetite through regulated vehicles is strengthening. US spot XRP ETFs recorded net inflows of $81.6 million in April—their strongest month of 2026—and have already attracted an additional $28.17 million in the first week of May. Total net asset value across XRP ETFs now stands at $1.43 billion. TradFi heavyweight UBS has also disclosed an investment in the Grayscale XRP ETF, adding credibility to the product.
Beyond on-chain and ETF flows, adoption in key markets is expanding. Rakuten Wallet has integrated XRP in Japan, widening the token’s reach in one of the world’s largest retail crypto markets.
The bullish divergence has not escaped analysts. MilkybullCrypto points to a multi-year rising channel stretching back to 2014, with XRP currently near the lower trendline between $1.30 and $1.40—a zone that has historically sparked massive rallies. His target is $12, the channel’s midpoint. Fellow analyst JD sees a breakout from a symmetrical triangle and a retest, projecting a target between $8 and $14. ChartNerd echoes the optimism, stating that “a decisive break of this structure is likely around the corner” and that even a corrective sweep to $0.90–$0.70 would not alter the macro uptrend.
While XRP struggles below $1.40 in the immediate term, the convergence of a four-year low in whale exchange inflows, record ETF net flows, rising institutional participation, and bullish long-term technical setups suggests a potential explosive move once short-term headwinds clear.
