The TON ecosystem experienced a sharp revival in early May after Pavel Durov announced that Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the network’s primary driving force and become its largest validator within two to three weeks. The announcement triggered a powerful price reaction across ecosystem tokens, with Toncoin (TON) doubling from roughly $1.32 on May 1 to an intraday high of $2.90 by May 7, lifting its market cap to approximately $7.8 billion. Notcoin (NOT) followed closely, surging around 88% over the same seven-day period as trading volume jumped nearly 190% to close to $293 million.
Durov’s post confirmed what traders interpreted as TON effectively becoming Telegram’s chain. Earlier exclusivity agreements had already made TON the sole blockchain for Mini Apps, required TON Connect as the wallet standard, and mandated Toncoin for Telegram Stars, Premium, Ads, Gateway, and developer payouts. The governance shift added a centralized anchor that, according to Durov, would attract more participants and lock more TON into staking at roughly 20% APR. On-chain metrics spiked in response: decentralized exchange volume rose 1,054% week-over-week to $152.9 million, perpetuals volume jumped 3,200%, and single-day app fees hit $1.48 million. Still, the network’s stablecoin base ($752.5 million) remains far behind chains like Solana ($15.4 billion) and TRON ($89.6 billion), tempering long-term expectations.
Notcoin benefited from renewed interest in the Telegram gaming narrative. Revolut’s April 30 listing gave 70 million European users direct access, while Telegram’s validator move accelerated capital rotation into riskier TON ecosystem tokens. Analyst Szymanski projected that a $100 investment at $0.00066 could purchase nearly 150,000 NOT tokens and potentially grow to around $1,500 if NOT returns to $0.01, or up to $15,000 in an aggressive $0.10 scenario. Another analyst, DR7, noted that Notcoin acted as the first gateway for millions of Telegram users into TON and that liquidity is slowly returning to the ecosystem. Notcoin’s deflationary mechanics—over 210 million NOT have been permanently burned through gameplay—and expanding utility via Notcoin Explore and SDK integrations could support long-term value.
The rally faces near-term risks, including a May 24 token unlock of approximately 36.58 million TON worth roughly $93.65 million, or 1.36% of the float, which could create supply overhang. Durov’s legal exposure, with a Russian criminal summons and an ongoing French inquiry, adds uncertainty around the governance anchor. The market may also eventually price a centralization discount if Telegram’s control is seen as contrary to crypto’s decentralization ethos, potentially re-rating TON toward current fundamentals rather than future potential.
