Avalanche (AVAX) is at a critical technical juncture after a sharp pullback from the $10 region. According to Brave New Coin data, AVAX trades near $9.73, down 4.33% in the past 24 hours, with an intraday low of $9.69 and high of $10.22. While the decline tempers immediate bullish momentum, the broader setup remains constructive if key levels hold.
Technical breakout confirmed by RSI – The strongest signal comes from a chart shared by analyst Shango, showing both AVAX price and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking above descending resistance lines. Price has pushed out of a multi-week compression, and RSI has mirrored the move by surmounting its own trendline. This dual breakout gives the price action more technical weight, as momentum often follows such confirmations. Immediate upside targets sit at $10.80, followed by $11.25. A decisive move above $10 would strengthen the case for a rally toward $15.
Manifold selling adds supply risk – Despite improving chart structure, AVAX faces a significant overhang. As highlighted by Nazoku, quantitative trading firm Manifold has been heavily offloading AVAX on Bybit. Recent transactions include 85,000 AVAX (approximately $814,300) and 22,000 AVAX (around $208,800), with total sales exceeding $154.55 million over the past year. This constant selling pressure explains why AVAX has struggled to sustain rallies. However, if buyers continue to absorb these tokens and price holds above support, it would signal that demand is outweighing supply, making any future breakout more credible.
Long-term macro upside – Analysts like Flippix point to a massive three-year compression pattern on the weekly chart. Should AVAX establish a base above $9–$10, long-term targets emerge at $35, $65, and even $140–$146. These levels are not short-term objectives but underscore why the current range is so pivotal. A base formed here could mark the end of the prolonged downtrend.
Key levels to watch – Support rests at $9.50–$9.70, with $9.00 as a critical floor. A reclaim of $10 would restore intraday momentum, while a breakout above $10.80–$11.25 would confirm buyer control. Failure to hold $9, however, would invalidate the bullish structure and risk a deeper pullback.
Overall, the technical picture for Avalanche is improving, but real follow-through is needed. The fusion of a confirmed breakout with the ability to digest large-scale selling could set the stage for a meaningful recovery.
