CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has moved into the “Early Bull” zone for the first time since March 2023, according to an analysis by CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV_. The signal marks a potential shift away from bearish conditions, as Bitcoin rebounds sharply from its late-March support levels and now tests a key resistance band.
The indicator tracks the difference between CryptoQuant’s P&L Index and its 365-day moving average. Deeply negative values historically align with extreme bear phases, while values near zero often correspond to transitions. The latest reading shows the metric exiting the “Bear” territory and entering “Early Bull,” a condition that previously appeared in 2019 and 2023 before bullish cycles unfolded.
Bitcoin’s price has surged roughly 26.54% from the $65,000–$59,000 accumulation zone and is now confronting $80,000–$85,000 resistance—an area that previously acted as support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 49.52, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving traders watching for either a breakout above resistance or a rejection that could stall momentum.
Despite the optimistic shift, analysts caution that similar signals have produced false starts. In March 2022, the indicator flashed an “Early Bull” reading that ultimately marked a local top before Bitcoin continued its broader downtrend. This historical context tempers expectations, as the current signal will need to be confirmed by sustained price action above the resistance zone.
Bitcoin was trading around $80,700 at the time of the report, down slightly over 24 hours, reflecting the market’s wait-and-see approach as it digests the indicator’s implications.
