Bitcoin's recent rally is facing a chorus of bearish calls from prominent analysts, with some predicting a sharp reversal to as low as $40,000. Benjamin Cowen, a widely followed crypto analyst, points to Bitcoin's encounter with the 200-day moving average (currently near $82,750) as a pivotal decision point. Drawing on historical cycles from 2014, 2018, and 2022, he notes that this level has repeatedly acted as strong resistance in bear markets. Even temporary breaks above it led to short-lived gains before renewed weakness. Cowen draws a striking parallel to 2018: after a low in February and a higher low in April, Bitcoin rallied to the 200-day MA in May – a pattern he sees repeating now. He maintains a cautious, bearish stance, suggesting the price could weaken again later in the year as macroeconomic uncertainty persists.
Adding to the pessimism, AlejandroBTC called the recent bounce a dead cat bounce, with the $82,000 area potentially marking the top. He warned of a possible 50% decline toward $40,000, where a more durable base might form. CryptoCon, using historical bear market timelines, estimates the current cycle is 216 days in, about 55% complete, and that the -52% drawdown so far is still above past cycle lows, leaving room for further downside.
CryptoRover echoed these concerns, stating this week could be the top for Bitcoin based on patterns that preceded crashes of 65% in 2014, 64% in 2018, and 52% in 2022. He identified three potential catalysts: a record monthly open interest spike in 2026 that could trigger liquidations; the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve chair being confirmed, an event that has historically coincided with Bitcoin drops; and overextended equity markets, where a correction could spill over into crypto.
The convergence of these bearish technical and fundamental signals suggests Bitcoin's path ahead may be treacherous, putting the $40,000 target firmly on the radar.
