SoftBank’s OpenAI Bet Powers $46 Billion Vision Fund Profit Surge

57 minute ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • SoftBank’s huge OpenAI bet amplifies AI hype, potentially lifting tokens like FET and RNDR.
  • S&P’s negative outlook flags concentration risk, which may spark cautious crypto sentiment.
  • Debt-driven asset sales could spread volatility, impacting correlated risk assets including crypto.

SoftBank Group posted a dramatic jump in quarterly profit, propelled almost entirely by valuation gains from its enormous stake in artificial intelligence powerhouse OpenAI. Net profit for the January–March quarter reached 1.9 trillion yen ($12.05 billion), more than triple the 517 billion yen recorded a year earlier, marking the Japanese tech investor’s fifth straight quarter of profitability.

The standout result was fueled by the Vision Fund, SoftBank’s flagship investment arm, which booked an investment gain of 3.1 trillion yen in the period. Nearly all of that—roughly $20 billion—stemmed from the rising paper value of OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT. For the full fiscal year ended March, the Vision Fund’s cumulative gains swelled to about $46 billion, overwhelmingly driven by the OpenAI position.

SoftBank has already poured $34.6 billion into OpenAI and has pledged more than $60 billion total, a commitment that would secure roughly 13% ownership once fully deployed. The AI startup’s valuation has soared: a funding round in February valued it at $890 billion, and a March round co-led by SoftBank came in at $852 billion, pushing SoftBank’s stake to $79.6 billion as of end-March.

However, the quarter’s shine masked losses elsewhere. Holdings in Coupang, DiDi Global, and Klarna weighed on the portfolio, and excluding the Vision Fund, SoftBank’s full-year investment income turned negative. Finance costs also climbed, with interest expenses hitting 229.4 billion yen in Q4 versus 148.9 billion yen a year earlier, reflecting the heavy borrowing used to fund the OpenAI bet. The company still carries $17.5 billion outstanding on a $40 billion bridge loan.

To manage the debt load, SoftBank has been selling assets, including stakes in Nvidia and T-Mobile. S&P Global Ratings, meanwhile, revised its outlook on SoftBank to “negative” in March, warning that the massive OpenAI concentration could weaken asset quality and liquidity. The agency added that further asset sales could mitigate risks.

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