Global credit rating agency Moody's has released a new report forecasting that institutional tokenization adoption by major U.S. banks and financial institutions will follow a pattern of slow initial uptake followed by rapid, widespread expansion. The analysis, cited by industry sources, highlights that while current activity is concentrated in simpler asset classes like funds and short-term instruments, the groundwork for a broader transformation is already being laid.
According to Moody's, most large financial firms have already established dedicated digital asset teams and are actively running pilot projects. The tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market has surged more than 420% since the start of 2025, reaching $31.6 billion, according to data from RWA.xyz. ARK Invest has projected that digital assets – including tokenized RWAs – could grow into a $28 trillion market by 2030, underscoring the sector's long-term potential.
The report outlines three possible pathways: a steady growth scenario where stablecoins and tokenized deposits expand within the existing institutional framework; a low growth outcome driven by regulatory hurdles and weak demand; and a rapid proliferation scenario that could see stablecoins become the dominant on-chain payment infrastructure. Moody's flagged that rapid expansion would pressure payment processors and smaller banks, potentially eroding traditional fee income and deposit bases.
Among the firms moving deeper into tokenization, Morgan Stanley recently appointed a new head for its crypto unit and disclosed plans for crypto exchange-traded funds and a digital wallet. Macro investor Jordi Visser noted that tokenization reality could emerge this year, especially as tokenized assets integrate with agentic AI payment systems.
The Moody's assessment reinforces that while the shift may be gradual at first, the financial industry is positioning for a future where tokenized assets are central. The agency's analysis provides a valuable framework for investors and regulators monitoring how tokenization could reshape competitive dynamics in payments and banking.
