Solana (SOL) currently trades around $91, down 4.3% in the past 24 hours and hovering just above a critical support level at $90. A failure to hold this zone could deepen losses, yet long‑term projections from ChatGPT‑based analysis suggest a wide range of potential outcomes, from a bearish $50–$90 to a bullish $550–$700 by 2029. The coin’s direction hinges on institutional flows, network reliability, and competitive pressures.
2029 Price Scenarios
A probability‑weighted base case assigns a 2029 target near $275, assuming the total crypto market reaches $5 trillion and Solana maintains roughly a 3% share. In the bull case, a spot Solana ETF approval and an $8 trillion market could push SOL to $550–$700. The bear case sees the market stalling at $2.5 trillion and Solana’s share shrinking to 1.5–2%, dragging it back to $50–$90 if competing Layer‑1 or Layer‑2 networks gain traction or network outages recur.
Institutional Demand Buoys Hopes
Despite the pullback, spot SOL ETFs continue to attract capital. Last week alone, they drew $39.2 million in net inflows, with Bitwise’s BSOL capturing nearly $36 million and Fidelity’s FSOL adding over $1.8 million. Cumulative ETF inflows since launch stand near $1.1 billion, signaling that institutional interest has not evaporated. Regulatory tailwinds from the pending CLARITY Act markup in the Senate Banking Committee could further encourage participation in tokens beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Technical picture
SOL recently climbed above its 100‑day EMA for the first time since October 2025, briefly touching $97 before sellers pushed it back to the low $90s. Immediate support lies at $90.46 on the Murrey Math Lines; a daily close below that could expose $88.16 and $85.85. Resistance sits at $95.06 and $97.36. The Aroon indicator shows the Aroon Up line near 0% and Aroon Down elevated around 78.57%, pointing to weakening bullish momentum. However, if buyers defend the $89‑91 region and reclaim $95, the next major hurdle before $120 appears relatively thin.
Corporate Treasury Losses Add Pressure
Sentiment is also being tested by Forward Industries, which holds 6.98 million SOL staked at a 6.73% APY. The firm purchased its SOL at an average cost of roughly $232.08, resulting in an unrealized mark‑to‑market loss approaching $1 billion at current prices. Its Q4 2025 report showed a net loss of $585.7 million, including $560.2 million tied to digital assets. Such large, concentrated losses could weigh on investor confidence if the market questions the sustainability of heavily leveraged SOL positions during extended price weakness.
The interplay between robust ETF inflows and the immediate threat of a break below $90 creates a delicate balance. While analysts’ weighted 2029 target of $275 offers a long‑term anchor, the near‑term trajectory depends on whether Solana can hold key support and whether institutional demand remains strong enough to offset technical and corporate‑treasury headwinds.
