Two fresh analyses of Ethereum’s market activity paint a complex picture: derivatives traders are quietly rebuilding positions, but spot demand—the buying pressure needed for a sustained recovery—remains alarmingly weak.
CryptoQuant data shows that Ethereum’s open interest on Binance has edged above its 30-day average, reaching approximately $5.5 billion compared to the average of $5.34 billion. The corresponding Z-Score for the metric climbed to 0.62, a reading above zero that indicates participation in ETH futures has ticked above the one-month norm. ETH itself has been trading near $2,110, showing stability rather than strong directional momentum. The chart shared by ArabxChain on CryptoQuant reveals that this rebound is gradual—a partial reset from the sharp flush in early 2026, when open interest collapsed from peaks above $8 billion in late 2025 to roughly $4 billion. The current $5.5 billion remains well below the $10–$12 billion ranges seen during the 2025 peak.
However, a separate warning from on-chain analytics firm EasyOnChain, cited by CryptoPotato, highlights a growing disconnect. Despite the derivatives market activity, spot market buying pressure has failed to materialize. “The absence of buying pressure to absorb the sell-off is the most concerning signal,” the analysis states. This divergence between futures and spot, historically associated with mid-to-long-term bearish trends, suggests speculative trading is not converting into real accumulation.
Institutional participation is fading too. U.S.-listed Ethereum ETFs have seen a slowdown in inflows and even net outflows in recent weeks. Critical here is the Coinbase Premium Index, which has remained negative throughout May. That metric tracks the ETH price difference between Coinbase Pro (a hub for U.S. institutions) and Binance (global retail). A negative premium implies American institutional investors are selling or refraining from buying, reinforcing the bearish outlook. EasyOnChain warns that while short-term bounces are possible, the structural data signals that a sustainable recovery may require a fundamental sentiment shift or a new catalyst.
