Bitcoin Surges Past $77K as Trump Unveils Iran Peace Agreement

1 hour ago 2 sources positive

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin’s sharp reversal from the 0.382 Fib level hints at algorithmic dip-buying, but the bounce lacks conviction without a daily close above $77,469.
  • The $190M long liquidation cascade before the recovery reveals a market susceptible to engineered squeezes, favoring tactical shorts on failed deals.
  • Should the Strait of Hormuz reopen permanently, crypto’s attention may pivot from oil correlation to upcoming ETF flows and post-halving supply dynamics.

Bitcoin staged a sharp rebound on Saturday, climbing back above $77,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a largely negotiated peace agreement with Iran that includes reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The news came hours after BTC had tumbled to $74,000–$74,500, wiping out early-session gains and triggering a wave of liquidations.

Trump’s Truth Social post revealed that an agreement had been “largely negotiated, subject to finalization,” involving the United States, Iran, and several other Middle Eastern nations. Crucially, the deal would allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, easing the naval blockade that had sent oil prices past $100 per barrel and weighed heavily on risk assets for weeks. The statement followed a call with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Pakistan, and Turkey, as well as a separate conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The crypto market reacted within minutes. Bitcoin, which had fallen to test the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $74,125, found strong support there. Buyers defended the level with conviction, preventing a breakdown that would have exposed the 0.5 retracement near $71,423. By the afternoon, the price had snapped back above $77,000, putting it up against the 0.236 Fibonacci resistance at $77,469. A daily close above that threshold would confirm the bounce, while failure might signal another rejection. Technical indicators were neutral-to-slightly bullish, with the daily RSI recovering to 51.86 from 46.75 and the 50-day SMA curling upward at $72,634.

Liquidations totaled $328.97 million for the day, with longs accounting for $190 million of that figure. The initial drop flushed overleveraged positions before the geopolitical catalyst reversed the trend — a pattern that has repeated throughout the Iran crisis. Since the U.S. Navy blockade began in April after peace talks collapsed, Bitcoin has been hypersensitive to diplomatic headlines, often moving in lockstep with crude oil and broader risk sentiment.

While the announcement removed a significant macro headwind, the deal is not yet finalized. Iranian officials have previously demanded war reparations, and a history of walking back similar agreements leaves room for caution. In late April, BTC hit $79,488 on comparable deal optimism only to retreat when talks stalled. What distinguishes this attempt is the breadth of regional participation and the explicit mention of the strait’s reopening in Trump’s statement. For now, Bitcoin trades in a familiar range: above $77,000, below $80,000, with the $77,469 level the key hurdle to watch.

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