Dell Hits Record Highs Before Q1 FY27 Earnings as AI Server Demand Fuels Optimism

1 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • The 136% YTD rally prices in perfection; any AI backlog softness could trigger sharp reversal.
  • Analyst price targets lagging current price highlights growing disconnect, raising correction risk.
  • Options-implied 11.75% move dwarfs historical average, signaling a binary, high-stakes event.

Dell Technologies (DELL) is set to report its fiscal first-quarter 2027 results after the market close on Thursday, May 28, and the stakes could hardly be higher. The stock has surged about 136% year-to-date, recently hitting an all-time high near $298, and options traders are bracing for a massive move of up to 11.75% in either direction — well above the stock's average post-earnings swing of 4.61%.

The driver of this rally is artificial intelligence infrastructure. Dell entered the quarter with a reported $43 billion AI server backlog, and Wall Street expects revenue to jump approximately 50% year-over-year to $35–$36 billion. Adjusted earnings per share are forecast at $2.91–$2.97, nearly double the year-ago figure.

Bullish analysts see room for more upside. Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani reiterated a Buy rating with a $270 price target, adding Dell to his firm's Tactical Outperform list, and expects the company to beat estimates. He highlighted CoreWeave's increased capex and new customer nScale as demand catalysts. Wells Fargo and JPMorgan raised their targets to $270 and $280, respectively, while Bank of America said Dell could top estimates and raise its full-year outlook. Evercore even sees potential for Dell to raise its FY27 guidance of $140 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $12.90.

However, not everyone is convinced. Morgan Stanley's Erik Woodring, while hiking his target to $170 from $110, maintained a Sell rating, citing valuation concerns. DELL now trades at a premium to AI infrastructure peers, and there’s uncertainty about demand sustainability in the second half. At $295, the stock is 181% above its 52-week low, with resistance at the $298 high and support around $227.

Overall, Wall Street rates Dell a Moderate Buy, with 12 Buys, 4 Holds, and 1 Sell, though the average price target of $228.87 is now well below the current trading price.

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