Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a stark ultimatum on Tuesday, declaring the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened “one way or the other,” following overnight U.S. military strikes on southern Iran. The volatile waterway—responsible for about 20% of global oil shipments—has been restricted since U.S. and Israeli attacks on February 28, driving gasoline prices higher worldwide.
Rubio’s remarks came as indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran continued in Doha. He insisted that any deal must guarantee free, toll-free passage through the strait, blasting Iran’s “tolling system” as universally opposed except by Tehran. Iran denied the fees were a toll, claiming they cover navigational and environmental services.
Reports suggest the proposed framework includes a 30- to 60-day ceasefire extension, with the strait reopening and Iran being allowed to sell oil again. Nuclear talks would be deferred. Analysts at Wolfe Research called it a “skinny” deal, but noted markets “won’t care one bit about the deferral of the nuclear file”—simply reopening the strait would be enough to spark a positive reaction. President Trump had initially teased an imminent announcement, then walked it back, while Rubio said any agreement would take “a few days” amid renewed clashes near the strait.
Despite White House optimism—National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett predicted energy prices would “plummet” once the straits open—energy analysts are urging caution. Wolfe Research warned that rebuilding inventories “will stretch well into 2027.” Henrietta Treyz of AGF Investments coined the term “Hormuz Hangover,” forecasting a recovery measured in quarters and years. Capital Economics argued any rally would be limited because prices won’t return to normal immediately.
Meanwhile, Rabobank raised its Brent crude price outlook, citing an elevated risk of prolonged closure. Their strategists noted that even partial or intermittent disruptions could remove significant supply from an already tight market strained by OPEC+ cuts. A sustained blockage would have severe consequences: price spikes, inflationary pressure, and potential shifts in monetary policy. Investors were advised to monitor diplomatic developments closely, as any de-escalation could rapidly reverse gains.
As of Tuesday, crude futures hovered between $90 and $100 per barrel. Yardeni Research cautioned that markets may permanently price in a “Strait of Hormuz premium,” recognizing Iran could threaten the chokepoint again. With no deal signed and the timeline uncertain, the global energy market remains on edge.
