Cardano is trading near $0.23, a level last seen in 2020, as a combination of weak derivatives data and bearish technicals weighs on the asset. ADA has now posted three consecutive weekly losses, and futures open interest on Binance has plummeted to $98 million – down sharply from a May 11 peak of $128.97 million. The long-to-short ratio on the exchange sits at 0.70, below the neutral 1.0 mark, indicating traders are positioned more for further declines than a rebound.
Price action remains firmly under the key exponential moving averages: the 50-day EMA at $0.255, the 100-day at $0.275, and the 200-day at $0.347. The monthly RSI is at 38.92 with its signal line at 46.78, sustaining bearish momentum on the longer timeframe. ADA has been testing a support line that has held since 2020 – the same floor that preceded the rally to $3.00 in 2021. Each subsequent bounce from this line has produced a lower high: $1.30 after the 2024 recovery, and now the price is back at the line for a third time.
While charts point to a fragile situation, on-chain data from Santiment tells a different story. Wallets holding at least 1 million ADA now collectively control 25.11 billion ADA, the highest amount since December 2017, and 67.49% of total supply – the highest concentration since July 2020. The last time millionaire wallets held this much supply was right before the historic 2020-2021 rally. These large holders are accumulating at the same price levels that preceded ADA’s largest run, even as the pattern of lower highs continues.
Key scenarios remain split: if the $0.23 support holds, a recovery toward the $0.29–$0.30 resistance zone becomes possible, especially if Bitcoin rallies. A clean break below $0.23, however, exposes the low-$0.20 area and potentially even pre-2020 territory below $0.10, erasing five years of macro floor. The coming monthly close will be pivotal in determining whether the accumulation by whales can overcome the persistent technical weakness.
