Bitcoin’s price trajectory has sparked renewed debate after Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed a $1.6 billion Bitcoin loss, drawing fresh attention to corporate crypto exposure. The news coincided with a succinct post from Michael Saylor, the company’s executive chairman, who tweeted “Working ₿etter. $BTC,” reinforcing his long-standing bullish stance on Bitcoin. The post, devoid of further commentary, came as traders scrutinized Strategy’s massive holdings and their vulnerability to market weakness.
Amid the corporate fallout, market analyst Altcoin Sherpa weighed in, questioning whether Bitcoin had already marked its latest low. “Was that it? Hard to say,” the analyst noted, before adding, “I still think the 200W EMA is the target personally.” The 200-week exponential moving average is a widely followed long-term technical level, often acting as support during deep corrections. The analyst suggested the current price zone may represent a relative bottom but cautioned that more time might be needed for a definitive move.
Adding to the bottom-call narrative, a report from BIT (formerly Matrixport) argued that Bitcoin could hit a short-term trough in June before rebounding. Historically, Bitcoin’s average June return over the past decade is a modest +0.7%, but the firm noted that 2025’s below-average May gains already deviate from seasonal norms. The analysis pointed to two emerging catalysts: U.S. regulatory approval of crypto perpetual futures and the upcoming launch of Nasdaq CME crypto index futures. Both developments could draw institutional capital and provide a floor for prices. BIT’s models indicate oversold technical conditions that have preceded past rebounds, though the firm stressed that sustained recovery hinges on these catalysts generating sufficient buying pressure.
Together, the events weave a complex market picture—Saylor’s unshaken Bitcoin message, Strategy’s paper loss, and a growing chorus of analysts seeing a potential bottom shaped by both technical levels and structural market upgrades. For traders, the 200-week EMA and June’s regulatory milestones now serve as critical signposts in the weeks ahead.
