Bitcoin’s sudden dip to the $61,300 area and a violent wave of long liquidations have reignited a heated debate over the state of the market cycle. While some traders see a classic bear trap, others declare the bear market already finished.
The sell-off briefly dragged BTC below the closely watched 200-week moving average, a level near $61,700 that has historically marked the bottom of major bear cycles. Liquidation data from CoinGlass showed that over $740 million in total BTC positions were wiped out in a 24‑hour window, with $623 million in long positions erased. The price then bounced more than 5% back above $64,750, aided in part by reports of an Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire.
Against this backdrop, two sharply contrasting narratives have emerged. Crypto analyst @CryptoFergani argues that the bear market is already over and that Bitcoin is now transitioning from accumulation to acceleration. Using a multi‑cycle ascending channel, he points to historical touches of the lower boundary as accumulation zones that preceded powerful rallies. With institutional participation expanding and regulatory discussions intensifying in the United States, his long‑term projection targets a rise from the $60,000–$80,000 range to $320,000–$340,000 later in the cycle, provided BTC stays within its long‑term channel.
On the other side of the debate, the weekly chart still shows a bear flag breakdown in progress. Failure to reclaim the upper trendline of the flag leaves a path toward $50,000–$52,000 on the table. Trader Hitman42.eth cautioned that the bounce could be a trap, noting the graveyard of $600 million in liquidated longs just beneath current prices. Others, like RidaaXBT, expect a relief bounce toward the $69,000–$70,000 zone, arguing the liquidation cascade has cleared out near‑term selling pressure.
The 200‑week moving average remains the key battleground. A convincing hold above that level would invalidate the bear flag scenario and put $70,000 back in play. In 2018 and during the March 2020 crash, Bitcoin bounced sharply from its 200‑week average, making the current test a potentially pivotal moment.
