Ethereum has staged a sharp recovery after a steep decline that briefly swept below the $1,500 level, but the broader market structure remains under pressure. On the daily chart, ETH is still trading beneath both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing a longer-term bearish trend. The Fibonacci retracement of the recent sell-off places key resistance at $1,770 (0.5 level), $1,830 (0.618), and $1,920 (0.786) — zones where sellers are likely to re-emerge.
The 4-hour chart offers a more constructive short-term outlook. Buyers stepped in around a bullish fair value gap near $1,640, pushing the RSI back above the midpoint. As long as that support holds, ETH could test the $1,750–$1,850 liquidity cluster. A loss of the $1,640 area would weaken the bounce and increase the risk of another visit to $1,500.
On-chain sentiment via the Coinbase Premium Index remains cautious. The metric rebounded from extreme negative territory but is still slightly negative, suggesting that institutional demand has not yet returned in force. A durable shift to positive territory would be needed to confirm a more robust reversal.
Amid the short-term uncertainty, analyst Crypto Patel urges a long-term perspective. Using a two-week timeframe, he identifies a broad accumulation range between $1,550 and $1,000, arguing that the current sell-off is a Wave 4 correction within an Elliott Wave cycle that began after the 2021 peak. Patel's roadmap targets $16,000 for the subsequent Wave 5 expansion, with the cycle top projected between 2026 and 2027. He notes that a breakout above $3,945 would serve as the first major confirmation that the accumulation phase has ended.
