Bitcoin’s on-chain data is flashing one of its most closely watched contrarian signals after the total supply held at a loss surged past 10.46 million BTC—roughly 50% of the entire circulating supply—following a sharp drop to $59,000 this week. Analyst Ali Martinez (known as Ali Charts) and Glassnode data both highlight that this threshold has historically coincided with major market bottoms, sparking renewed debate on whether the latest correction is nearing its end.
According to Glassnode, the Total Supply in Loss metric now stands at approximately 10.46 million BTC, meaning half of all coins in existence are underwater relative to their last moved price. The metric escalated after Bitcoin fell to as low as $59,000, while recent trading shows a partial bounce to around $63,242. The decline since its cycle high exceeds 40% over the past year, explaining the sharp rise in unrealized losses. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has dropped into the “Hope–Fear” zone, leaving the optimism that marked much of the previous year behind. Meanwhile, the daily RSI has dived into extreme oversold territory, with readings worse than those seen during February’s historic lows—one of the most oversold conditions analysts have observed in years.
Martinez argues that when such a large share of the network is already deeply underwater, the incentive to liquidate weakens significantly, reducing selling pressure. Historically, this environment has appeared near major market turning points. The analyst identifies three DCA entry levels at $62,800, $55,000, and $42,500, while MVRV bands at $53,900 and $43,150 mark premier accumulation windows. Although a definitive bottom remains unconfirmed, the combination of massive unrealized losses, depressed sentiment, and extreme oversold readings reinforces the view that Bitcoin is trading in a zone frequently associated with capitulation and subsequent recovery.
