The 2026 FIFA World Cup, the largest in history with 48 teams and 104 matches across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, is poised to become a landmark event not just for sports but for the cryptocurrency and prediction market sectors. According to a new analysis from Bernstein, the tournament could generate more than $3 billion in incremental handle and lift overall consumer prediction market volumes by $5 billion to $10 billion, delivering the first major global stress test for the emerging industry.
Prediction markets—platforms where users trade event contracts on real-world outcomes—have gained mainstream traction after the 2024 U.S. presidential election, but Bernstein argues the World Cup can prove the category is not merely a political-cycle product. “The sector could reach $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030,” the firm noted, with 2026 volumes alone expected near $240 billion. A successful World Cup showing would demonstrate that sports contracts can create recurring consumer engagement that blends trading, betting, and entertainment.
Among the biggest beneficiaries is DraftKings, whose DraftKings Predictions remains the only legal sports product available in California, Texas, and Florida—states that house 52% of the U.S. Hispanic population. Bernstein estimates the tournament could attract about 650,000 fresh funded accounts for DraftKings Predictions, with the company tipped to exit 2026 at roughly 2 million users. A Telemundo media tie-in and a Spanish-language app are expected to sharpen its acquisition funnel.
Robinhood is using the World Cup as a commercial launch moment for Rothera, its CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse built with Susquehanna. The new structure aims to recapture exchange economics and lower fees. Prediction markets already represent a meaningful growth line for Robinhood: approximately 12 billion event contracts were traded in 2025, and 2026 year-to-date figures through May reached roughly 16 billion. Annualized revenue from the product hit $415 million in Q1 2026 and could climb to $586 million by year-end—a 286% year-over-year jump and roughly 17% of Robinhood’s transaction-based revenue.
Coinbase has emerged as another major player, crossing $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue within just two months of launch. By offering World Cup contracts through its Kalshi partnership, the exchange aims to bring non-crypto-native users onto its platform and reduce reliance on cyclical crypto trading volumes. “The World Cup gives the sector its first global sports stress test at scale,” Bernstein analysts wrote, adding that strong volumes near their estimates would prove event contracts can become a durable revenue line for consumer finance, brokerage, and crypto platforms.
The competitive landscape is already shifting. Prediction markets handled $31.2 billion in May, with Kalshi grabbing a 57% share after 21% month-over-month growth to $17.9 billion, while Polymarket volumes declined 14.8% to $7.1 billion. The World Cup will test whether Kalshi’s regulated structure, Robinhood’s user base, Coinbase’s crypto distribution, and DraftKings’ sports audience give larger platforms an insurmountable edge.
Beyond prediction markets, traditional stocks are also expected to profit. Marriott, Hilton, and Airbnb anticipate higher occupancy rates, while Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel) could see $1.3 billion of a projected $3.3 billion U.S. sports betting handle. Coca-Cola, a longtime FIFA sponsor, earns brand visibility rather than a material earnings bump. Yet for the crypto world, the tournament’s real significance lies in whether it cements prediction markets as a mainstream, year-round asset class—and which platforms ultimately dominate the new playing field.
