Bitcoin has once again touched a trendline that it has never broken below in nine years, sparking a debate among analysts about whether history will repeat with another parabolic rally or if further downside is imminent. Crypto analyst Crypto Rover highlighted the trendline, noting that each past touch triggered massive rallies: 1,300% in 2017, 1,900% in both 2018 and 2020, and 700% in 2022. The current touch has given bulls some optimism, but the same analyst cautioned that BTC may not have found its bottom yet.
Rover pointed to on-chain metrics: the short-term holder realized price of $74,000 has been reached, but the overall realized price at $53,600 and the long-term holder realized price at $50,000 remain untested. He noted that every prior cycle bottom traded below the realized price and each major flush kissed the long-term holder line. Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez flagged the Investor Price at $48,300 as a key level for long-term accumulation, adding that the 1.0–0.8 MVRV bands align at $53,900 and $43,150 — suggesting a drop below $50,000 is possible. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $62,600, up slightly in 24 hours.
André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, added a similarly cautious note during the BTC Prague event. He sees a risk of another 20% decline, with the worst-case scenario pushing BTC to $48,000, which he described as the “maximum pain” level tied to long-term investors’ average cost. Dragosch identified the 200-week moving average at $61,000 as the first major support, followed by the actual cost level at $56,000. Bitwise’s experimental bottom probability model has started to rise, but on-chain indicators have not yet reached the extreme levels seen in past cycle lows, signaling that a definitive reversal is not yet confirmed.
Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, also believes a bottom has not been established, projecting a baseline range of $40,000–$46,000. Dragosch attributed the recent selling pressure primarily to massive weekly outflows of about $2 billion from exchange-traded products, equivalent to dumping around 50,000 BTC onto the market in a short period. He noted that the 32 BTC sale by Strategy was symbolic and that institutional buying has not slowed meaningfully. On the altcoin front, Bitwise’s Altcoin Excitement Index shows no signs of an altcoin season, and Dragosch stressed that passage of the Clarity Act in the US is critical for a strong uptrend in alternative assets. With mixed signals, investors are closely watching Bitcoin’s support levels and regulatory developments.
