A new study reveals that U.S.-based investors moved an estimated $11 billion to $34 billion into offshore prediction markets over the past 12 months, circumventing a federal ban imposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The research, led by Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane and consulting firm Crane Zeng, shows that decentralized platform Polymarket alone absorbed $11 billion to $27 billion of that total, accounting for roughly 30% of its global trading volume.
The methodology focused on two key indicators: heavy concentration of trading in U.S.-centric markets — such as American elections and major sports leagues — and the timing of trades aligning with U.S. business hours. Notably, half of all sports market trading on Polymarket was traced to U.S. origins. Despite Polymarket blocking U.S. IP addresses since the 2022 CFTC ban, the study indicates that users are broadly bypassing these restrictions via virtual private networks (VPNs). Other blockchain-based platforms — including Opinion, Limitless, Overtime, and Predict — also recorded significant U.S. activity.
The report highlights a shifting market structure. In 2024, offshore platforms held 84.4% of a $16.8 billion annual prediction market total, but by 2025 their share fell to 54% as total industry volume ballooned to $65 billion. Licensed U.S. platforms like Kalshi, Crypto.com, IBKR ForecastEx, and Gemini processed $74 billion in the same period, with Kalshi alone handling $70 billion, narrowing the gap with the $85 billion in offshore volume.
The study projects that if current trends persist, U.S. volume in unregulated markets could climb to $133 billion annually by 2030, while Bernstein estimates the global prediction market could reach $1 trillion. In response to regulatory pressures, Polymarket launched a CFTC-compliant mobile app, “Polymarket US,” in December 2025, intended to give Americans a legal alternative. The ongoing disparity between regulated and unregulated usage remains a focal point for regulators grappling with enforcement in decentralized finance.
