Analysts at Bernstein have highlighted that Robinhood is positioned to experience "strong tailwinds" as prediction markets see record trading volumes during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In a note to clients, the research firm reported that daily prediction market volumes surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, when the U.S. faced Paraguay — figures that already exceed the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.
Bernstein projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will soar to $586 million in 2026, a 286% increase from $150 million in 2025. This would account for approximately 17% of the company's transaction-based revenues and 10% of total revenue. The firm credits the newly launched Rothera exchange — a CFTC-licensed venue that traded nearly 200 million contracts in its first 18 days — as a key differentiator, with World Cup and MLB contracts generating nearly all volume. Robinhood's competitive pricing ($0.01 commission per contract and up to 50% fee reductions for Gold subscribers) and its extensive user base give it a distribution edge.
The expansion of prediction markets is a broader trend, with Polymarket rolling out private company event contracts and Kalshi launching CFTC-regulated perpetual futures on major cryptocurrencies, which recorded $1 billion in volume within one week. Bernstein estimates the World Cup tournament could drive more than $3 billion in incremental handle and $5–10 billion in consumer volume uplift across the sector. Robinhood's prediction markets have become its fastest-growing product line by revenue, and success during the tournament would cement event contracts as a durable business rather than a novelty.
