Ethereum has set an internal target of 2029 to transition away from the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) to a quantum-resistant protocol, following new research from Google's Quantum AI team that dramatically lowered the estimated qubit requirements for breaking such cryptography. The development has intensified the conversation around quantum computing's threat to crypto, with Bitcoin finding itself at the center of a debate between preparedness and downplayed risk.
Google’s March 2025 paper indicated that approximately 1,200 logical qubits could be sufficient to reverse-engineer a private key from a public key on Ethereum, a twentyfold reduction from earlier estimates. Because Ethereum exposes the public key with every transaction, a powerful enough quantum computer could theoretically access user funds. The Ethereum Foundation's 2029 roadmap would replace ECDSA with post-quantum signature schemes such as lattice cryptography, requiring a complex hard fork without disrupting decentralized applications or billions in assets.
While Ethereum has taken a public stance, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino argues that quantum fears around Bitcoin are being overstated. He believes that if a serious threat emerges, wallet holders would have time to move funds, and that quantum computers will likely be controlled by governments or tech giants before becoming a threat. Ardoino also speculated that attempts to crack legacy wallets like those of Satoshi Nakamoto would be state-level actions, not ordinary hacks.
However, Coinbase's Quantum Council has urged early preparation, estimating that around seven million Bitcoins sit in addresses that could become vulnerable if quantum computing advances. The council warns that updating networks could take years and that waiting until the threat is imminent would cause bigger problems. The call extends to Ethereum and other chains that rely on ECDSA.
Investor Tim Draper added another perspective, suggesting that traditional banking systems may face even greater quantum risks than crypto. He argued Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it more adaptable. Meanwhile, other major networks like Solana have yet to announce any quantum-resistance timeline, leaving an uneven preparedness landscape. Google itself is targeting 2029 to migrate its internal systems, signaling that the urgency stretches well beyond blockchain.
